Musk: “Let There Be ZERO Doubt” SpaceX Will Run Terafab – Here’s What that Means for TSMC Gian Estrada Wed, October 7, 2026 at 12:13 PM EDT 4 min read TSM -1.91% SPCX -3.18% TSLA -1.00% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla will build and run Terafab themselves, leaving TSMC a sublease at most, days after TSMC stock hit an all-time high on news of the talks.
Losing an operating role costs TSMC very little, because its record rests on its own foundry business.
Analysts expect TSMC's revenue to grow about 43% in fiscal 2026 and reach nearly 2.5x its fiscal 2025 level by fiscal 2028.
TSMC trades at 20.5x forward earnings, a bit above its five-year average of 18.3x, and its next test is its earnings report on Oct. 15.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM:NYSE) stock hit an all-time high on Monday after Elon Musk confirmed early talks about a role in Terafab, the Texas chip complex that SpaceX (SPCX:NASDAQ) and Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) are building.
The talks surfaced on Friday, Oct. 2, when tech journalist Tim Culpan's Culpium newsletter reported that TSMC was exploring ways to help run Terafab's factories. On Saturday, Musk replied: "Just discussions, but something may come of it."
Then Tesla commentator Herbert Ong posted on X that "The likeliest deal has TSMC owning and running the fab."
Musk's response on Wednesday: "No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that." He added: "Maybe TSMC subleases part of the Terafab if they want, but nothing more than that."
That's about as clear as Musk gets. TSMC shares slipped about 2% on Wednesday morning.
I don't think Musk's post changes much for TSMC shareholders.
Analysts already expected huge growth from TSMC's own foundry business: consensus has revenue up about 43% in fiscal 2026, then reaching nearly 2.5x its fiscal 2025 level by fiscal 2028.
None of that depends on a fab in Texas, and the estimates are heading up anyway. On Wednesday, Citi analyst Atif Malik raised his earnings estimates for TSMC's next two fiscal years, said "another round of consensus earnings upgrades" is likely, and expects revenue growth above 40% into 2027.
At that valuation, I wouldn't treat Terafab as essential to the investment case. Even at a record, TSMC trades at 20.5x forward earnings, a modest premium to its five-year average of 18.3x and well below the 25.4x it hit in July 2024.
Musk's post matters more for Intel (INTC:NASDAQ), the partner TSMC looked ready to crowd out. Intel joined Terafab in April, and Musk has said the complex will use Intel's 14A process. This week, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan told Bloomberg that Intel is staying on.
Intel needs this anchor customer. Its revenue fell by a third, from $79.0 billion in fiscal 2021 to $52.9 billion in fiscal 2025.
Musk's stated plan is to use Intel's 14A process and have his companies build and operate Terafab, with a possible TSMC sublease still under discussion.
Fair point. A sublease or supply deal could still bring TSMC revenue, and Musk did say "maybe." TSMC is also reportedly weighing a Texas campus of its own, on top of the $265 billion it has committed to Arizona.
The timing is the problem. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said in April that a new fab takes two to three years to build and one to two more to ramp. Terafab reportedly aims to begin silicon manufacturing by 2029. That suggests a longer-term opportunity, but no TSMC-specific production timetable has been announced.
Musk's post takes away an option TSMC never needed. The record rests on AI chip demand from customers it already serves, and the Oct. 15 earnings report will test that far more directly than any post about Texas.
Musk did leave the door open. Talks that were "just discussions" a week ago could still become a supply deal once Terafab is built.
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