SpaceX Wants $40 Billion for Nvidia Chips. Here’s Where the 145% Long Term Upside Sits. Gian Estrada Wed, October 7, 2026 at 1:08 PM EDT 3 min read NVDA -0.84% SPCX -3.27% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Debt-Funded Demand: SpaceX is seeking ~$40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips, the FT reported on October 6, as Nvidia stock closed at a record $239.
Street Repricing: Analysts hold 48 buys, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions, and 1 sell, with a $329 mean target sitting 37% above the close.
Model Upside: TIKR's mid-case model sees $587 by January 2031, a 145% total return.
Nvidia (NVDA:NASDAQ) stock closed at a record $239 on Tuesday, October 6, the same day a Financial Times report said SpaceX is seeking $40 billion in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips.
The reported package pairs $10 billion of bank loans with $30 billion of investment-grade debt. The proposed structure would bring outside lenders into funding Nvidia chip purchases. But the final terms would determine how much risk those lenders—and Nvidia—actually bear.
CEO Jensen Huang previewed this shift while defending Nvidia's customer financing at Goldman Sachs' tech conference on September 10: "We're moving NVIDIA compute from technology to an investable asset." Bond buyers absorbing $30 billion of SpaceX debt for Nvidia racks would prove his point at scale.
And the demand lands on a capped book. Nvidia guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of 70% because of supply limits, while customer forecasts call for growth to double. Outside financing could help customers fund purchases, but the 70% outlook remains a supply-constrained forecast, not a guaranteed revenue floor or a measure of credit risk.
Nvidia stock carries 48 buys, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions, and 1 sell. Fifty-nine analysts publish price targets, and their $329 mean sits 37% above the $239 close.
The gap widened from the target side. On October 26, 2025, the stock closed at $186 against a $219 mean. Since then the mean has climbed 50% while the price gained 28%, and the low target jumped from $100 to $180. The Street keeps raising the bar faster than the stock clears it.
I ran TIKR's mid case with revenue growing 25.1% a year, a 53.4% net income margin, EPS growth of 24.4% a year, and the P/E shrinking 3.3% a year. Over the last year, revenue grew 65.5% and the net margin ran at 56.9%. So the model assumes growth at well under half that pace and a slightly thinner margin.
I set growth there because Nvidia's 70% outlook covers fiscal 2028 alone, and CFO Colette Kress expects supply to stay a bottleneck at least through the end of that year.
The model lands at $587 by January 31, 2031. That's a 145.2% total return from the $239 close over 4.3 years, or 23.1% a year.
By my math, that's roughly 2.5 times today's price. The number to watch is the multiple: the P/E fell 25.8% over the last year even as EPS grew 59.5%, and the model has it shrinking just 3.3% a year.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what NVDA stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
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