Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool Wed, October 7, 2026 at 4:03 AM EDT 6 min read MRVL +5.81% NVDA +0.14% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) finally put a number on its long-term goals. Talking to investors in New York on Tuesday, management said Marvell sees revenue of around $20 billion in fiscal 2028 and $70 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2031 (the year ending in early 2031).
For context, Marvell took in $8.2 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026, the year that ended in January. So the latest range is about 8.5 to 11 times last fiscal year's sales. Management also pegged the size of the market it's chasing at about $400 billion by 2030.
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Shares jumped after the event and were around $290 as of this writing. At that price, the stock trades at about 43 times the earnings expected for fiscal 2028, so it's not cheap on near-term numbers.
Compared with the company's own long-term targets, though, I think the price looks much more reasonable.
Marvell's fiscal 2028 revenue forecast has risen in each of its past two updates. In May, management called for around $16.5 billion. In August, it upped that to around $18 billion, on top of about $12 billion expected for fiscal 2027. Now it sees about $20 billion, an 11% gain over about six weeks.
The growth Marvell expects for that year has climbed with it, from around 45% in May to about 50% in August. If fiscal 2027 lands near that $12 billion forecast, $20 billion would mean growth of about 67%. In other words, Marvell keeps finding more growth for the same year, even as the company gets bigger.
Reported results are going the same way. Revenue rose 37% year over year in the fiscal second quarter (the period ended Aug. 1), up from 28% the quarter before, and the company forecast more than 50% growth this quarter.
The fiscal 2031 range calls for more of the same. Going from $20 billion to $70 billion to $90 billion in three years would take annual growth of around 52% to 65% -- about the rate Marvell now expects for fiscal 2028, held for another three years.
On the August earnings call, Dan Durn, Marvell's chief financial officer, said its non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin would probably hit the company's 38% to 40% long-term target range by the fiscal fourth quarter and reach the top end in fiscal 2028. He added Marvell would reset that long-term model at the investor day. The adjusted operating margin was 36.6% last quarter, up from 34.8% a year before.
Even at the old 38% to 40% range, $70 billion to $90 billion of revenue would mean around $27 billion to $36 billion of adjusted operating profit in fiscal 2031. Marvell's market value, meanwhile, is about $255 billion. So the stock sells for around 7 to 10 times the fiscal 2031 operating profit implied by its own targets.
Operating profit isn't earnings, of course. But with Marvell expecting an adjusted tax rate of only about 13% in fiscal 2028, taxes might not change the picture much.
If Marvell hit only half the low end of its range, or $35 billion, a 38% margin would mean shares cost about 19 times operating profit. For a company growing so fast, I'd call that a fair price for a disappointing outcome.
Of course, a target isn't a contract. And the $20 billion gap between the low and high ends of the fiscal 2031 range matches Marvell's entire fiscal 2028 target.
I couldn't find any disclosed customer commitments backing the range. CEO Matt Murphy said custom chip programs with cloud giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon could lift revenue as they grow after 2029.
Even the custom deal Marvell has detailed most fully leaves the buying up to the customer. A warrant Marvell issued in August to Google, a unit of Alphabet, vests as Google buys custom products, up to $120 billion worth through fiscal 2033. But the filing describing it calls the purchases "discretionary."
Growth in custom chips also drags on profitability. Management said the custom ramp is why its adjusted gross margin guidance for the fiscal third quarter is 57.5% to 58.5%, below 58.9% last quarter.
And spending on artificial intelligence could slow long before 2031.
Still, I don't think Marvell needs to hit its range for the stock to do well from here. At about $290, shares look fairly priced even against half the low end, and the shorter-term outlook keeps rising. I think the stock is worth buying today, even after Tuesday's jump. But I'd expect big swings in the share price ahead.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Marvell Technology, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Marvell Now Sees as Much as $90 Billion in Annual Sales by Fiscal 2031. Here's Why It's a Chip Stock to Buy. was originally published by The Motley Fool
