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© France 24 09:48 Issued on: 12/03/2026 - 08:50
From the show Reading time 2 min FRANCE 24's François Picard is pleased to welcome Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Adjunct Senior Lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. According to Dr. Parsi, the current political situation in Iran should be approached with caution, too much attention is being paid to the potential rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. Yet the Islamic Republic is not a system built around a single person, especially during a time of war. Decision-making power lies with institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards and the broader security establishment.
This institutional dynamic also complicates efforts to understand Khamenei himself, explains Dr. Parsi. Whether he intends to maintain continuity with the political baseline established by his late father or eventually chart his own course remains difficult to assess. For now, the Islamic Republic is fundamentally focused on survival, and that struggle will likely shape both internal politics and foreign policy.
Militarily, there is also a tendency among outside observers to misinterpret Iranian behaviour. A reduction in missile launches, for example, should not automatically be interpreted as a lack of capability. It may simply reflect a deliberate strategic approach aimed at weakening defensive systems first, thereby increasing the effectiveness of later strikes. Ultimately, Iran’s objective appears to be political as much as military: to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries costs, and to ensure that any eventual negotiations with the United States occur under more serious terms than those previously attempted. And so, Dr. Parsi argues, "the Iranians are going to play this game their own way".
At the same time, the American approach to the conflict appears to lack strategic coherence. Changing objectives and unclear political end goals risk turning the conflict into a cycle of escalating crises rather than a path toward resolution. Even limited Iranian capabilities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could impose significant costs on the global economy simply through the threat they pose.
Dr. Parsi warns that the war has also complicated internal dynamics within Iran itself. While some Iranians initially hoped external pressure might weaken the regime, many are now confronting the reality that aerial warfare primarily destroys infrastructure and societal institutions. The resulting human and economic costs may not guarantee political change, leaving open the possibility that the country could emerge from the conflict with both a weakened state and an unchanged political system.
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