Make New York Post a Preferred Source Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Chris Szagola The Phillies earned their keep as the only Wild Card team to force a Game 3.
Their postseason experience paid dividends on Wednesday, emerging 4-3 in extras after climbing back from a 3-1 deficit via Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper’s back-to-back home runs in the eighth.
Now with all the momentum heading in Thursday evening’s win-and-advance decision, the Phillies’ experience will once again be an asset.
Philadelphia opted to start Aaron Nola, who is on regular rest after throwing only 21 pitches in his last start on Saturday. While Zack Wheeler would have been the more conventional choice, the Phillies ace threw 97 pitches on Sunday and has never started a postseason game on short rest.
Neither here nor there, Nola brings a postseason resume of 11 starts to the bump, going 5-4 with a 3.88 ERA. He faces Ray Kerr, who has zero playoff experience in his four years in the majors.
Yet, some books have this priced as a pick’em, while others are giving a razor-thin edge to the Braves on home turf.
Nola’s campaign was a tale of two halves. The 33-year-old battled command issues through his first 17 starts, sporting a 5.58 ERA, before turning the season on its head by executing better sequencing to escape late-inning jams.
Nola has seen the Braves twice within the last month and surrendered only three runs across 13 ⅓ innings. He pitched a 4.50 ERA against them in 18 innings overall, but reached the fifth inning in all three starts.
Philadelphia Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly walks to the mound against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning during Game 2 of baseball’s National League Wild Card Series Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, in Atlanta. AP Photo/Brynn Anderson It wasn’t long ago Nola pitched against Atlanta in a postseason game, either. He secured wins against previous iterations of this lineup in both 2022 and 2023.
Nola loves his knuckle curve, dealing it 33 percent of the time per Statcast. It’s that pitch that helps his chase rate, which is in MLB’s top 22 percent. The Braves are more eager than not in fishing for balls outside the zone; they rank inside the top-10 highest chase rates, swinging at 31 percent of those pitches, and making contact with them at the fourth-lowest clip overall.
Don Mattingly said Game 3 will be “all hands on deck,” so Nola’s outs prop is set at 11.5, indicating that he could be used more as an opener.
Philadelphia has less reason to get cute with an early hook given some key relievers have been used in big spots over the last two days.
THE PLAY: Aaron Nola Over 11.5 Outs (-135, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
