Make New York Post a Preferred Source Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever looks on during a game against the Washington Mystics. A.J. Mast/NBAE via Getty Images The Fever and Aces will meet for the second straight time in the WNBA playoffs, this time in a best-of-three first round series.
The Fever will be looking to exact some revenge against the Aces after being bounced from the postseason by the reigning champs.
The Aces are looking to join the elite franchises in WNBA history and win a fourth title, but need to get through a formidable Fever squad to do it.
The Aces enter Game 1 as home favorites with the spread sitting between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop.
The Fever pushed the Aces to the brink in last year’s playoff series without Caitlin Clark and it seems the confidence they gained rolled over in this season.
The Fever took Game 1 of their 2025 playoff series on the road and they picked up two blowout wins in Las Vegas this season.
The Aces’ lone win against the Fever required every bit of energy they could muster — they had to make up a 20-point first-half deficit, needed A’ja Wilson to lock up Clark on the final play and two buzzer-beater 3s from Chelsea Gray.
Chelsea Gray (12) of the Las Vegas Aces. Getty Images That last game is much closer to what we can expect in a playoff environment than the two lopsided games that preceded it.
The Fever are a dangerous team with two dynamic scorers in Kelsey Mitchell and Clark, the second- and third-leading scorers in the WNBA.
That duo has been giving the league fits all season as the Fever lead the ‘W’ in Offensive Rating (115 points per 100 possessions) and True Shooting Percentage (60.6 percent), while also playing at the second-fastest pace in the league.
The Aces are just a shade behind the Fever in those two offensive categories — 112.9 Offensive Rating on 59.3 percent True Shooting — but their defense puts them in another tier.
The Aces finished top five in defense while the Fever finished eighth. I don’t think the Fever have enough on that end of the floor to limit the Aces’ attack.
I expect the Fever to be ready for this game given the history between the two teams and for their offense, particularly their 3-point shooting to stretch the Aces to their limit in this series. But we saw once in the regular season that the Aces can put the clamps down at the end of games to get a win.
This game should be close down the stretch and I’ll back the Fever to stay within 4.5 points.
The Pick: Fever +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
