Make New York Post a Preferred Source Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks on against the Detroit Lions during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on September 17, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York. Getty Images Fool me once, shame on me.
Fool me twice, shame on you, Justin Herbert.
The Chargers were responsible for 32.5 percent of Yahoo Sports survivor pool players getting eliminated in Week 1, losing as 9.5-point favorites to the Cardinals. Just when we thought they would clean up their act against another green team in the Raiders, same results.
Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has led a disjointed attack that’s failed to sustain drives and has taken costly penalties. Herbert has compounded the incompetence by being a turnover machine, forfeiting the football five times against Las Vegas.
They head into Highmark Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs after the Bills settled into their new digs by dragging the Lions for 41 points and 446 yards last Thursday.
Josh Allen is not only pulling offense from a hat, but he’s doing it without risk. The AFC Offensive Player of the Week has five touchdown passes and four with his legs, which ties four other players for the league scoring lead. His nine total is five more than the Chargers have altogether.
In the meantime, he’s thrown zero interceptions.
James Cook is picking up where he left off last season as the rushing champion. The workhorse back finished with 135 yards by consistently gaining ground before contact.
Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers calls to his team during the first quarter of the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium on September 20, 2026 in Inglewood, California. Getty Images Two weeks ago, laying 7.5 would’ve felt crazy against a Chargers team with Super Bowl expectations, but let’s peel back some numbers.
Buffalo leads the NFL with 20 plays of at least 15 yards, 13 of at least 20 and seven of at least 30.
A league-high 10.7 percent of its snaps have gained 20-plus yards, compared to just 2.7 percent for Los Angeles.
So, to put it in perspective, the Bills are averaging 3.67 points per possession, second in the NFL, while the Chargers are all the way down at 1.22, 28th in the league.
Allen is setting the tempo from the get-go rather than waiting for something to go wrong.
He is throwing 10-plus yards downfield on 40.7 percent of his attempts and has gone a ludicrous 17 for 22 for 428 yards and four touchdowns on those throws.
Against Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins, Los Angeles allowed 15 completions on 23 throws traveling at least 10 yards downfield for 311 yards and three touchdowns.
Overall, the Chargers rank 30th in pressure rate when blitzing and 28th in sack rate, while allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
There is certainly a backdoor-cover concern considering Buffalo’s defensive struggles, but Los Angeles first has to survive the front door.
The Bills have scored at least 36 points in both games, are home with extra rest after playing Thursday and catch a West Coast team traveling east for an early kickoff.
THE PLAY: Bills -7.5 (+108, Kalshi)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
