Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes warms up prior to a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Friday, August 28, 2026, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect See more of our coverage in your search results.
Add The New York Post on Google For most of his career, Patrick Mahomes seemed almost invincible.
Just when you thought he’d take a sack, he’d scramble away and pull off one of his signature sidearm throws. If the Chiefs trailed late, even in the Super Bowl, he managed to pull off a game-winning drive to seal a win for Kansas City.
That air of invincibility first took a hit when the Chiefs were throttled 40-22 by the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. It was shaken as the Chiefs struggled to win game after game down the stretch last season and it completely shattered when Mahomes injured his knee against the Chargers, effectively ending his season.
That makes the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs one of the biggest regular-season games of his NFL career.
Whether he can quickly return to form, or close to it, in his first game back from injury will be the biggest question entering the game and the Broncos will test him at every turn.
The Chiefs enter the game as short 2.5-point favorites across the market with the Over/Under hovering at 43.5 total points.
Mahomes didn’t play in the preseason as the Chiefs’ main concern was to get him fully healthy and ready for the regular season. But few players in the NFL had as much of a spotlight on their performance in training camp as Mahomes did this summer.
By all accounts from beat writers and insiders, Mahomes has physically recovered from his torn ACL and LCL and looked sharp in team practices. But going from no game action — not even a preseason snap against backups — to live action against arguably the best defense in the NFL is a massive jump.
The Broncos’ pass rush has given opposing quarterbacks nightmares for the past two seasons leading the league with over 60 sacks in back-to-back seasons.
Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Defensive tackle Zach Allen led the NFL in quarterback knockdowns, ranked second in batted balls at the line of scrimmage and third in quarterback pressures. But linebacker Nik Bonitto was arguably the standout player on Denver’s defense, finishing fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting with 14 sacks last season.
If quarterbacks survived the relentless pass rush, they had to contend with a secondary that allowed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, which was second-best in the league behind the Seahawks defense. Anchored by Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos were able to control and limit passing attacks in multiple ways.
This is the defense Mahomes has to attempt to solve in his first real game in nearly a year and I think we’ll see the former MVP working his hardest to come up with answers. Unfortunately for Mahomes, I don’t know that he’ll be able to show the magic just yet.
With a surgically repaired knee to maintain throughout the season, he’ll either need to get the ball out quick to receivers in the flat and on short routes, or take incompletions to avoid sacks in the pocket and protect his legs. That should limit the number of downfield throws we see from Mahomes.
Sportsbooks have Mahomes’ passing yards prop sitting as high as 229.5 and I’m taking the Under in his return.
The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 229.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
