Add The New York Post on Google Back for Season 33 in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide.
How long is that? Well, let’s just say when I picked my first game in Week 1 of 1994, Aaron Glenn was a rookie first-round pick from Texas A&M, making his debut for the Jets in Orchard Park. His coach was Pete Carroll.
Today, I’m competing with the two of them for most gray hairs.
The one thing that will be different about this season is that it’ll be my last. After I give out one more Super Bowl winner (I hope!), you’ll find me at the golf courses, tiki bars, and poker rooms on the Florida Suncoast.
Anyway, we have 22 weeks left and a lot of games to get to, so here goes.
I do believe John Harbaugh will raise the floor in his first season in East Rutherford. Really, there’s only one way to go for a team that’s been drowning in the swamp in the McAdoo-Shurmur-Judge-Daboll era.
But the people who are calling for 9-10 wins and a potential playoff berth might be forgetting just how close to the bottom the Giants are. With two games to go last season, they still had possession of the No. 1 overall pick, and their fans were dreaming about how to extort three first-rounders and more from the Jets for Fernando Mendoza.
Yes, the Giants did have some close calls against good teams such as the Lions and Bears, and had a colossal blown lead at the Broncos. Their record could have been much better, so maybe an infusion of Harbaugh’s toughness and Super Bowl-winning experience is all they need to make a big jump right away.
However, Harbaugh’s picture is in the dictionary alongside “colossal blown leads” for his time with the Ravens. And Baltimore fans seem pretty happy to have Jesse Minter in his place.
For the Giants, the coaching change likely will benefit 52 of the players, but I’m not certain it was great for Jaxson Dart. He and Daboll had something good going together. We’ll see what Dart can get done with Matt Nagy and Greg Roman.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys come in with a lethal wide receiver tandem of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to test a questionable Giants secondary. If the pass rush doesn’t get after Dak Prescott, this could be a downer of an opener for the Harbaugh era.
The Jets get the first look at the fired New York coaching duo of Robert Saleh and Daboll, now with the Titans. Glenn knows he’ll be the next local coach fired if the Jets get off to a bad start. And with the Packers, Lions and Bears up next, that’s quite likely if they lose this game to a fellow bottom-feeding team.
I’m interested to see what Geno Smith can do with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell and Kenyon Sadiq behind a strong offensive line. And what will it look like if David Bailey and Will McDonald harass Cam Ward and force a few (heaven help us!) interceptions?
Much of the Bears’ success last season was borne of a plus-22 turnover differential fueled by 33 takeaways. I’ve found that numbers like that don’t usually carry over from season to season. Still, rookie safety Dillon Thieneman should be a buzzsaw on that defense, and the offense figures to only get better in Ben Johnson’s second season.
The Lions are my NFC Super Bowl team, and though they will be without Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch in the secondary, I’m expecting Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown to come out firing. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, but Tyson is on IR.
If Daniel Jones can get back to form so quickly after tearing his Achilles on Dec. 7 of last year, it will be the biggest NFL medical miracle I can remember. This spread’s suspiciously light, maybe owing to the Colts’ 8-2 start to 2025, but Lamar Jackson, Kyle Hamilton and the big-boy Ravens figure to be a brutal first test for Jones.
Was willing to back the Falcons with Tua Tagovailoa and now that he’s out, Cooper Rush doesn’t feel like much of a downgrade. The fact that Mike McCarthy first coached Aaron Rodgers 20 years ago drives home just how old the Steelers quarterback is. Have an inkling the extra half-point might matter.
The Bills are my Super Bowl winner, and I believe there’s going to be a big difference in this team with Joe Brady at the top in place of Sean McDermott, a defensive coach who might in some ways have held Josh Allen back a little. The Texans will be a tough out, particularly if C.J. Stroud is better than he was in the playoffs. Have to win games like this to be champs, though.
You always run the risk of getting your doors blown off when you fade the Bengals, but this is a nice price on the Bucs. Bucky Irving and Tristan Wirfs are healthy, Baker Mayfield got paid, and watch out for rookie wide receiver Ted Hurst III alongside Emeka Egbuka.
Just don’t trust the Jaguars at this level of favoritism. The Browns acquired Jared Verse in the Myles Garrett trade, and drafted wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Also don’t hate new coach Todd Monken. Worth a shot at this price.
Though Jayden Daniels and Sonny Styles worry me at this number, this is the week to get the Eagles offensive line fully healthy. Will be fun to see Makai Lemon and DeVonta Smith team up with Saquon Barkley.
Are the Dolphins really tanking before the season starts? With a new coach and free agent quarterback? I find that hard to believe. So it’s with some trepidation I’m laying these points. I figure Kirk Cousins and center Tyler Linderbaum will bring some stability to the Raiders offense, and keep an eye on rookie running back Mike Washington Jr.
Hate to lay this many in Week 1, but don’t see the alternative. The Cardinals tried to juice up the offense in the draft, but guard Chase Bisontis is on IR and running back Jerimiyah Love will have ankle issues, if he plays.
I’m not putting too much stock into the Packers being winless last season in games Micah Parsons missed. Those defeats were all against top teams. Still, the combination of that and Josh Jacobs’ suspension makes this a tough spot if Kyler Murray is any good.
Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes are coming off injuries, and add dynamic help in Jaylen Waddle and Kenneth Walker, respectively. Denver still has a diabolical defense. Take the points and get your popcorn ready.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Ravens (Locks 9-13 in 2025).
THU.: 49ers (W).
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
