The study suggests a complete severing of trade ties would hurt both superpowers while bringing temporary gains elsewhere
2-MIN READ2-MIN ListenDannie Pengin BeijingPublished: 8:00pm, 12 Sep 2026Chinese researchers have modelled a war game scenario suggesting that a complete economic decoupling between the US and China could, unexpectedly, yield dividends for most other nations.
However, the simulations carried an important caveat: any spillover benefits would be fragile. If those economies were subsequently to cut their own economic ties with China, their initial welfare gains would quickly turn into losses.
The study, co-authored by researchers from the Guangzhou Geological Survey Institute and the Bay Area International Business School at Beijing Normal University, was published in the peer-reviewed South China Journal of Economics.
