Video GOP midterm convention kicks off as Republicans fight for House control House Majority Whip Tom Emmer joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss the Republican midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Emmer details economic indicators, gas prices and voter turnout projections for the November House elections.
If you think you know who’s winning the midterms, I have some bad news.
The voters who will decide them are just starting to pay attention.
I say this as someone who loves polls. They tell us what people care about, what they’re worried about and where the political opportunities are.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS SAY THEY’RE IN ECONOMIC PAIN, BUT WILL DEMOCRATS GAIN?
But summer horse-race numbers come with a giant asterisk:
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed appeared headed toward a comfortable Democratic Senate primary victory. He won by about a point.
LEE CARTER: ELECTION SHOCKER: THE WINNERS HAD A SLOGAN; THE LOSERS JUST HAD RÉSUMÉS
In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong led David Crowley by roughly 20 points in two polls. Crowley won.
In Minnesota, a public poll had Angie Craig ahead of Peggy Flanagan by two. Flanagan won by nearly 20.
100 DAYS UNTIL MIDTERMS AND DEMOCRATS ARE WINNING BECAUSE THEY ACTUALLY HAVE A MESSAGE
And now comes the part of the campaign when they start moving.
Labor Day is the unofficial beginning of the election season for the people who don’t spend August obsessing over politics.
They don’t know who won the week. They didn’t see the viral clip. They aren’t refreshing the generic ballot. They have never described themselves as "low-propensity voters."
And politics has developed a very bad habit of confusing the people who are paying the most attention with the people who will ultimately decide the election.
CAN THE 'BEST SHOWMAN IN POLITICS' DELIVER AGAIN? GOP BETS ON TRUMP AT HISTORIC MIDTERM CONVENTION
A few thousand furious people can generate an enormous amount of internet.
Millions of people wondering why their grocery bill is still so high can generate almost none.
Then Election Day comes along and counts them exactly the same.
This is why I’m less interested in who moved from 47 to 48 this week than in what sits underneath the number.
REDISTRICTING GIVES REPUBLICANS AN EDGE, BUT AFFORDABILITY WILL DECIDE THE MIDTERMS
And which party is actually reaching people who weren’t already with them?
Because there is a huge difference between making your supporters more enthusiastic and turning more people into your supporters.
Attention feels like momentum. Persuasion creates it.
Which makes what Republicans are doing in Dallas this week fascinating.
For the first time, the GOP is holding a national convention built around a midterm election.
Now the question is whether they use it to talk to themselves or to the voters they still need.
DAVID MARCUS: EXPERTS CROWNED EL-SAYED — THEN MICHIGAN VOTERS TURNED HIS WIN INTO A NEAR-DISASTER
Because Republicans don’t have an awareness problem.
They don’t have an enthusiasm problem among their most loyal supporters.
100 DAY SPRINT TO THE MIDTERMS KICKS OFF AS REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS CLASH FOR CONTROL ACROSS THE COUNTRY
Americans don’t experience the economy through a press release.
Washington has statistics. Americans have receipts.
They know what groceries cost. They know what happened to their insurance premium. They know what the electric bill looks like. They know whether a decent salary suddenly doesn’t feel so decent anymore.
Republicans can spend their time in Dallas explaining why the economy is better.
Or they can answer the question voters are actually asking:
RECORD GAS PRICES SQUEEZE AMERICANS AS SUMMER TRAVEL SEASON ENDS, MIDTERMS LOOM AND IRAN WAR WAGES ON
Texas Democrat James Talarico is counterprogramming the Republican convention with a statewide food drive focused on grocery prices and affordability.
Republicans have the arena. Democrats want the grocery cart.
Republicans can use Dallas to make people who already love Trump cheer louder.
Or they can give people who aren’t sold on Republicans a reason to reconsider.
And that’s what I’ll be watching in every poll from here to November.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION
Who is turning concern into choice and enthusiasm into turnout?
The political class spent the summer measuring attention.
Now we get to measure something much more important.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM LEE CARTER
Lee Hartley Carter is a communications strategist and public opinion expert. She's the founder and CEO of Carter Intelligence Group and author of "Persuasion: Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter" (TarcherPerigee, September 3, 2019). Follow her on X on @lh_carter.
