"The Odyssey" appears primed to dominate at the Oscars next March. Melinda Sue Gordon / Universal Pictures via Everett Collection As the TV industry gears up for the Primetime Emmy Awards on Monday, cinephiles on the festival circuit are already handicapping the Oscars.
There’s still plenty of time, of course, for awards season shake-ups and twists – but here are the films on insiders’ minds so far so you can start keeping track – or at least impress your colleagues at work. And some of our insiders’ expert takes may surprise you!
Let’s start off easy with films that have already hit theaters: “The Odyssey” and “Project Hail Mary.” Both are widely predicted as shoo-ins for Best Picture nominations.
“Right now, it’s ‘The Odyssey”s to lose. It’s more accessible than ‘Oppenheimer.’ It’s just so good,” says one awards insider of Christopher Nolan‘s latest Academy Awards-caliber outing. Our source adds that there’s already significant buzz for actors Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton. “Nolan movies rarely get praised for the acting specifically, especially the women,” points out the insider.
(Look for Morton in particular to become an intriguing Oscars story: She told Josh Horowitz’s “Happy Sad Confused” podcast last month that she’s been out of work since “The Odyssey”‘s release, even as the film has made over $1.6B at the global box-office. “I haven’t worked for a year since making ‘The Odyssey’… and I’ve got really good agents and a manager,” she said. “But at the end of the day, I’m 49. I do believe I’m a good actor, [but] there are other good actors out there… the politics of the industry has changed massively.”
As for Ryan Gosling’s chances to amaze-amaze-amaze with another acting nod for his role as Dr. Ryland Grace in “Project Hail Mary,” a source says, “Ryan has an uphill battle. The performance might be a little glib for voters. But he would have my vote. He’s not campaigning too hard yet, but I’m hoping that changes.”
Another blockbuster that pundits aren’t quite sure how to place is Lionsgate’s “Michael,” which drew rave reviews from audiences, and made over $1B as well — but was dismissed by Hollywood types due to its controversial subject. But, “I’m willing to call Colman Domingo right now as the winner [for Best Supporting Actor], because those voters are dying to give him an Oscar,” one insider told us. The expert added of Domingo’s performance as complicated showbiz family patriarch Joe Jackson: “A showy supporting performance is what they love, and that guy works a room.” (A Domingo win would be quite a way to kick off the show, as the category is usually presented first. He’s been nominated for Oscars in 2024 and 2025.)
Several new challengers are entering the fray at the biggest fall festivals — Venice, Toronto and Telluride.
Playwright and filmmaker Martin McDonagh’s buzzy Venice film “Wild Horse Nine,” which stars John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, got a 13 or 14-minute standing ovation, depending on which trade report you read. The film, which follows two CIA agents who are sent to Easter Island during the 1973 Chilean coup d’état, also had a standing-room only screening at the secretive Telluride Film Festival, where both stars generated Oscar buzz.
There’s also “Elsinore” out of Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival, starring Andrew Scott — playing “Chariots of Fire” star Ian Charleson, who took on the demanding stage role of Hamlet at the National Theatre while ill from AIDS. The performance “could very well win him the Oscar,” per a source. (The former “Fleabag” “hot priest” and “Sherlock” baddie Scott will also get a boost by appearing on Saturday in a TIFF “In Conversation With” chat on his career.)
Other TIFF titles to watch include: “Being Heumann” (director Siân Heder‘s follow-up to 2022 surprise Best Picture winner “CODA”), Werner Herzog‘s “Bucking Fastard” (playing Venice and Toronto with Kate and Rooney Mara‘s first on-screen collaboration) and “Trainspotting” director Danny’s Boyle’s film adaptation of the West End and Broadway play “Ink.”
Another Telluride film, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s top-secret, years-in-the-making documentary about Elizabeth Holmes, “You Can See Everything,” now has an October release date from A24 and instantly redefined the documentary race after its surprise screening.
Filmmaker Alex Gibney‘s Elon Musk documentary also opens in October after debuting in Venice. (Look for that film to get some broadsides from Musk himself on X, after the Tesla billionaire already went after the project when it was first announced.)
The New York Film Festival has had a somewhat lower profile in recent years on the fall circuit. But “Behemoth!,” starring Pedro Pascal and Olivia Wilde, will debut at the Lincoln Center fest. In the film, Pascal plays a famed cellist who returns to LA to compose film scores. But, “I think the standout is Olivia Wilde in supporting. Especially coming off ‘The Invite,’ she’s got momentum,” says an insider.
Wilde’s directorial effort, “The Invite,” co-starring Seth Rogen, Penelope Cruz and Edward Norton, is also being eyed as an awards season contender in the acting and directing races, if distributor A24 makes a push. The film was acquired earlier this year at Sundance and became a summer alt hit, counter-programming against “Spider-Man” and “The Odyssey.”
Reports suggest some studios are skipping Venice to avoid having early missteps in the Oscar race in case a film falls flat, a la “Joker: Folie à Deux” in 2024.
Other potential contenders in various categories include: “Digger” with Tom Cruise, “Primetime” with Robert Pattinson, Jordan Firstman‘s directorial debut “Club Kid” (which A24 bought in Cannes and screened at Telluride), director Peter Farrelly‘s “I Play Rocky” (about the making of the Sylvester Stallone underdog classic), David Fincher’s Quentin Tarantino spin-off “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” with Brad Pitt and “The Debut” (Jesse Eisenberg‘s follow-up to his awards fave, “A Real Pain”).
Notably absent from any discussions with insiders so far is Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day.” While it’s too early to dismiss the alien thriller’s prospects entirely, it might take a UFO-sized effort to get it back on the minds of voters.
Away from the Oscar race, one date to keep in mind is Dec. 18, when “Dune: Part 3” and “Avengers: Doomsday” open on the same day — with fans dubbing the showdown “Dunesday.” Prestige films will be clearing the lane early this year for that holiday season battle.
