Research co-authored by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu finds labour shortages can spur, rather than slow down, productivity and growth
4-MIN READ4-MIN ListenAlex LoAlex Lo has been an SCMP columnist since 2012, commenting on China and international affairs. Published: 4:30pm, 6 Sep 2026There is little in common between Daron Acemoglu and Xi Jinping. As a strong advocate of the Western model of liberal democracy, Acemoglu, co-recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in economics, may be considered the ideological opposite of the Chinese president.But on a crucial point about China’s future, the two may, strangely, be on the same page: an across-the-board introduction of cutting-edge technology may enhance productivity and maintain economic growth. It may counteract the negative impact of drastic population decline in the decades ahead.
The reaction was swift and familiar: China will grow old before it grows rich, its workforce will hollow out, its pension system will buckle, its ascent will end.
02:58What might China do to address its record low birth rate and declining population?But that’s not the whole story. In fact, much of it is missing, and the alarm has outrun the analysis. “What if the historical evidence tells us that collapsing birth rates, paradoxically, are good for the economy,” economist Joeri Schasfoort asks in his YouTube channel, “because they force companies to innovate?”
