Add The New York Post on Google WASHINGTON — It’s a Texas-sized nail-biter.
Texas Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico is edging out scandal-scarred state Attorney General Ken Paxton by a paltry 0.6 percentage points among likely voters, a new poll shared with The Post found.
With just two months to go before Election Day, Talarico clinched a 44.0% to 43.4% lead over Paxton, raising alarm bells for Republicans in a traditionally red state, according to an Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll.
“It is pretty clear the Texas Senate race is going to come down to the wire. Despite trailing slightly, this is actually a really good poll for Ken Paxton compared to recent polling, showing him well within the margin of error and tied when leaners are included,” Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham said.
“This poll matches the betting markets, showing that it’s anyone’s race with just two months to go.”
Underpinning the close contest is the fact that Paxton is only up by roughly 57 points with Republican voters, compared to Talarico’s 93 points with Democrats, Cunningham noted.
Cunningham stressed that could mean “Paxton has more room for growth in a traditionally Republican state.”
When voters who lean a certain way are added into the fold, Paxton and Talarico tie at 50% apiece, per the poll.
Paxton had emerged from a bruising primary fight against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), with some estimates pegging the ad spending at a jaw-dropping $128 million.
President Trump ultimately backed Paxton near the end of the primary runoff. Cornyn argued that Paxton would be vulnerable in a general election because of the litany of scandals under his belt.
If Cornyn had won, he’d be down 42.7% to Talarico’s 43.6% among likely voters, according to the poll. In other words, Cornyn would hypothetically be trailing by slightly more than Paxton.
“While there are likely a number of reasons for this, it goes against the conventional wisdom in this race,” Cunningham said of that finding.
If firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) won the Democratic nod, she’d be trailing Paxton by about 6 percentage points. Both Crockett and Cornyn have so far refrained from stumping with their former adversary.
Talarico currently touts a 1.9 percentage point edge over Paxton in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
Elsewhere in Texas, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 46.9% to 45.8%, which is within the margin of error.
The survey also looked at the 2028 presidential race. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came out on top among Republicans with 29.5% support, compared to Vice President JD Vance’s 28.8%.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) notched 11.2%, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) got 6.5% support.
Among Democrats, the poll found former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the Democratic pack with 28.4%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (14.2%), Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (11.6%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (11.5%) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10.6%).
President Trump’s approval in Texas is underwater, with 44.1% approving of his handling of the presidency, compared to 55.9% disapproving.
The survey sampled 1,167 likely voters between Aug. 24–26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
