Add The New York Post on Google College football is a sport of rituals. The bands, the tailgates, and, of course, our beloved Ugly Underdogs.
Every Saturday morning during the season, right here in this space, you’ll get to know some of the most unglamorous programs in the country as we build a case for betting our hard-earned money on some awful teams to cover the spread. It ain’t for the faint of heart, but I have a feeling you will have as much, and possibly even more, fun backing the likes of UMass, Akron and Louisiana-Monroe than you will sweating out the 3:30 p.m. SEC headliner.
There is hardly a hotter seat in college football than Mike Norvell’s at Florida State.
Now entering his seventh season in Tallahassee, Norvell squandered any credit he had in the bank after leading Florida State to an undefeated campaign in 2023, which ended with the Seminoles being controversially left out of the College Football Playoff.
Instead of being motivated by the disrespect, Florida State sank in 2024, winning just two games.
Things didn’t get much better in 2025, as the Seminoles finished 5-7, despite starting the campaign with a stunning upset of Alabama.
It’s hard to set expectations for Florida State after a four-season roller coaster that saw them win 23 games from 2022-23, and then just seven from 2024-25.
What does Norvell need to do to keep his job? Is a winning season enough? Or does Florida State need to get back to where it’s supposed to be, which is among the elites in college football?
We aren’t likely to get any of those answers Saturday when Florida State opens its season as a five-score favorite against New Mexico State, but we could get them quickly thereafter.
The Seminoles take on SMU in Week 1 and then have a rematch with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 2. The losing coach of the latter could be out of a job by Week 3.
Speaking of expectations, you won’t find many programs with lower ones than New Mexico State this season.
Ashton Daniels is set to start at quarterback for Florida State. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect There are now 138 teams in FBS as we roll out the welcome mat for North Dakota State and Sacramento State, and the Aggies of New Mexico State project to be the 125th-best, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model.
It’s not a promising place to sit ahead of Week 0, but Tony Sanchez’s Aggies could be a real thorn in the side when they go up against better teams this season.
While most massive underdogs will want to slow things down and shorten the game to keep the scoreline respectable, the Aggies will likely take the opposite approach. They’re a counter-puncher that will hunt for turnovers and look for quick-strike scores.
Catch up on The Post’s college football betting predictions and previews for the 2026 season
That recipe can work for us. We’re not looking for the Aggies to pull the upset here and end Norvell’s tenure in Week 0; we just need them to keep this thing within the 31.5-point spread.
One way to get there is by forcing mistakes and flipping the field. New Mexico State was an expert in that in 2025, averaging the seventh-most takeaways per game. The Aggies should get plenty of chances to continue that trend against Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels, who has thrown 22 picks in limited action over the last three campaigns.
Norvell and Florida State could also be caught in two minds Saturday. On one hand, they’ll want to make a statement with a runaway win to begin their season. On the other, they’ve got a massive two-step waiting for them against SMU and Alabama after New Mexico State.
I’d imagine that the last thing the under-fire head coach would want is to lose a key player to injury in garbage time against the 125th-best team in the country.
There’s more than enough here to make the Aggies (+31.5) our first “Ugly Underdog” of 2026.
THE PLAY: NMSU +31.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
