Di Dongsheng argues it could take three decades for China to dominate access to ports, straits, canals and shipping lanes around the world
3-MIN READ3-MIN ListenOrange WangPublished: 3:55pm, 27 Aug 2026Updated: 3:58pm, 27 Aug 2026China should forge a national consensus on “regaining mastery of the oceans” and direct overseas investment returns into defence spending to brace for sea-power competition with the US, according to a prominent Chinese academic.
Di Dongsheng, associate dean of Renmin University’s school of international studies in Beijing, warned on Tuesday that as economic ties between the United States, the dominant maritime power, and China, which relies heavily on sea-bound trade, shifted towards competition, the era of open oceans could be drawing to a close.
“We must prepare for struggle in a coming contest over sea power and the security of shipping routes,” Di wrote in a note on his social media channel.
04:36Why the vital Red Sea shipping lane may be the new frontline in the US-Iran warHe argued it could take about three decades for China to secure dominance over and access to ports, straits, canals and shipping lanes around the world in a step-by-step process.
“Before then, the possibility that a portion of [China’s] import and export trade relying on maritime transport would come under threats, or even partial shocks, still warrants close attention,” he said.
Di noted that Beijing had gained the “upper hand” in last year’s tariff and sanctions wars, forcing US President Donald Trump into a temporary compromise. However, his research indicated that the White House remained unconvinced and he said some viewed Washington as actively targeting China’s vulnerabilities and waiting for the right moment to act.
“One of China’s obvious soft spots is the maritime routes,” Di said.
He described geopolitical events since the second half of 2025 around the Panama Canal, Greenland and the Strait of Hormuz as “a series of warning signals that the openness of the seas is tending towards an end”.
