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Cubs vs. Diamondbacks pitching matchup favors the under 8.5 as Clay Holmes faces Brandon Pfaadt

Video Wild brawl erupts in Wrigley Field bleachers Fans start brawling in the bleachers during a game between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox this week.

Baseball betting has been interesting this year. The start of the year was mostly .500 play from me, and then we had a stretch where I was probably losing slightly more than I was winning. Before and after the All-Star break, I made it all back and then some. The past week or so hasn't been quite as consistent with a mixture of winning days and losing ones. I'm hoping to get more consistent for readers as we head into the postseason. We start here as the Cubs take on the Diamondbacks.

The Chicago Cubs are one of the best teams in the National League, but they are still behind in their own division. That speaks more to how good the Brewers have been than anything. The problem for the Cubs this season has been their pitching. Even with the addition of a bunch of pitchers, the team still has to be questioning who they would roll out for a playoff series. Maybe their hitting will be hot enough for them to sustain any questions in the postseason, but with their reliance on homers, I have some major concerns about them making a lot of progress in the postseason.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Clay Holmes delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Aug. 14, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

If it were up to me, the first guy I'd put out on the mound for the club in the playoffs is today's starter, Clay Holmes. Holmes was one of two pitchers the Cubs picked up from the Mets this season. Holmes has very good numbers, coming in with a 5-6 record, 2.49 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. He only has 68.2 innings pitched this season, but that's still a reasonable amount of time for us to evaluate. He has been very good in his past two starts, allowing just one earned run over 12 innings of work. He faced the Diamondbacks with the Mets and allowed just two earned runs over 5.2 innings of work.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a lot of odd news swirling around them, thanks to Ketel Marte seemingly taking a vacation in the past week. Marte is likely to head back into the lineup soon, according to reports. It originally seemed like he just wasn't around the team, and then it turned out he was injured, and now he is set to come back. I suppose if you're good enough at something, you can do whatever you want. The Diamondbacks could use him as they are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot themselves.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park on Aug. 14, 2026 in Cumberland, Ga. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Like so many other teams, the pitching staff is what they need to rely on. Tonight's starter is probably one they can count on. They send out Brandon Pfaadt to the hill tonight. For the season, Pfaadt is throwing to a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. After being a starter for his whole career, the Diamondbacks asked him to come out of the bullpen for some of this season, and it seems like it may have helped with some adjustments for him. Over the last two months, he has been great. He has thrown 55 innings and allowed a total of 11 earned runs. He is coming off of his worst start of that stretch. He allowed five earned runs on seven hits, including three homers, over 5.2 innings. Prior to that, he hadn't allowed an earned run in 32.2 innings of work.

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Pfaadt faced the Cubs earlier this season and allowed two earned runs over 2.1 innings. Overall, though, Cubs hitters are batting just .165 against him. Seiya Suzuki has been terrible against him, going just 1-for-12 with five strikeouts. Ian Happ hasn't fared much better going 1-for-15, but he has put the ball in play 14 of those times, so he could be due.

Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) reacts after striking out against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Aug. 21, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

This is a game that I think the pitchers have the advantage. I'm not sure if the Cubs will win it or if the Diamondbacks will take it, so I'll stay off the side. Instead, I'm expecting the bases to be fairly empty and we will get zeroes on the scoreboard. Give me the under 8.5 for this one as I think we see a low-scoring game.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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