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MLB predictions: The Astros have the edge in baseball’s worst division race

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez runs to first base on a single during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday, August 3, 2026, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. (Troy Taormina) Troy Taormina-Imagn Images See more of our coverage in your search results.

Add The New York Post on Google The Red Sox are being lauded by the baseball world for their midseason turnaround and for good reason.

They had every reason to throw in the towel at their lowest point and have bounced back with a fervor that certainly put the rest of MLB, especially the American League, on notice.

But the Red Sox aren’t the only team in the midst of a hot stretch after some pretty bad baseball. If you haven’t paid much attention to the AL West (no one would blame you if you haven’t), there’s another team experiencing its own midseason surge at the most opportune time on the baseball calendar.

The Astros were lagging behind the Rangers and Mariners in the division for most of the season and even trailed the Athletics in the standings as recently as June 26.

The Astros went 4-6 in their 10 games played before the All-Star break and lost three straight immediately after it. At that moment, they were seven games below .500 and four games off the division lead.

The Astros have won 12 of their past 15 games entering play on Friday and only the Red Sox (13-3) have a better record over that stretch. The Astros now lead the AL West by 1.5 games ahead of their series against the Padres.

It’s not quite the same as the red-hot Red Sox chasing down the Yankees and Rays in the AL East, but the Astros are having a moment right now. What remains uncertain is if this is just a moment, or a signal of things to come in Houston.

The biggest difference between Houston and Boston is that no other team in the AL West seems to want the division crown. As impressive as the Astros have been, they are just two games above .500 with the Rangers and Mariners in the mix despite being below .500.

Houston Astros pitcher Bryan Abreu reacts after retiring the side against the Toronto Blue Jays during the eighth inning at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. (This asset – including all text, audio and imagery – is provided by Imagn Images. Reuters Connec) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect That said, someone has to win the division and sportsbooks give the Astros a very slight lead over the field with their price tag to win the AL West hovering between even money and +115 odds. The Rangers and Mariners are in the +200 to +250 range, which means the books aren’t entirely sold on the idea that the Astros will hold their narrow lead.

There’s a strong case they will be the top team in the division once the season ends. The Astros have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in baseball ahead of the Rangers and Guardians. However, the Astros own the tiebreaker over the Rangers after they swept their cross-state rivals in their final regular season series last week.

More importantly, the Astros have the best player in the AL in Yordan Alvarez, who is the odds-on favorite to win AL MVP with -900 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Alvarez leads all of baseball in batting average (.329), home runs (35), and OPS (1.083) and doesn’t seem to be slowing down at all as the season wears on.

This division has been abysmal and the Astros look like the only team that truly wants to win it. I’ll grab them at plus money now before the value is completely gone.

The Pick: Astros AL Division winner (+115, DraftKings)

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.

Read original at New York Post

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