World Cup 2026 Betting Norway vs. England World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bets for Saturday’s quarterfinal By Sean Treppedi Published July 11, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET Norway's Erling Haaland reacts. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters See more of our coverage in your search results.
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England and Norway’s World Cup quarterfinal clash has no shortage of top-tier striker talents seeking the scoresheet. Norway’s Erling Haaland has potted seven goals for the tournament’s third-highest total, trailing only Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi in Golden Boot odds at 7/1 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
He’s scored in all five games and tallied a brace in Norway’s 2-1 triumph over Brazil to propel The Vikings to their first-ever quarterfinal.
Right behind him is England’s Harry Kane, who has six genos and is priced at 8/1. Kane has been captain clutch for The Three Lions, rescuing England with a late brace against DR Congo before burying the game-winning strike against Mexico on their home turf.
Both players carry modest prices on the anytime goal scorer market into this game with Kane juiced to -120 and Haaland at +105. Those are implied probabilities of 55 percent and 49 percent, respectively.
The volatility at play here steers me away from either side on the three-way moneyline. If you’re line shopping, BetMGM is offering England for -110 while FanDuel is quoting Norway at +310.
The Norwegians’ highly aggressive counter-attacking system is designed to maximize Haaland’s output. At the same time, the defense pays for it: they have yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament and are conceding 1.64 expected goals per game, which is the highest mark of all eight remaining teams.
Overall, they rank near the bottom of all 48 teams with 8.1.
England has all the tools to punish this system — namely being Jude Bellingham. He doesn’t operate like a traditional No. 10 who stays high between the lines. Instead, he drops deep, so when England wins the ball and explodes forward, defenders are occupied with Kane while he attacks the space left behind.
Those late arrivals are notoriously difficult to defend — especially for teams who commit numbers forward — and Bellingham’s two goals have both come off this maneuver.
England’s Harry Kane heads to the dressing rooms at the end of the first half during the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Mexico and England in Mexico City, Sunday, July 5, 2026. AP Photo/Moises Castillo Brazil just outshot Norway 14-9 because they relied heavily on goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland to bail them out. England’s quick transitions will give him another hefty workload as they trail only France in big chances created.
But this English bunch is all too familiar for Haaland and Martin Ødegaard. Between the two of them, they share 12 total teammates on England’s roster between their respective Premier League clubs. Bellingham and Haaland’s bromance dates back to their time together coming up at Borussia Dortmund, so the friendly competition always adds an extra edge.
Ødegaard orchestrates the offense by supplying the through balls and line-breaking passes that allow Haaland to thrive in transition. There’s nothing the English can show Haaland he hasn’t already seen; he’s scored 27 goals in 35 Premier League games amongst his fellow blokes.
The English have reshuffled their back four in six straight games and now face another defensive headache with Jarell Quansah’s two-match ban. Not to mention, they are dealing with health uncertainty between both Declan Rice and Marc Guéhi in addition to the losses of Jordan Henderson and Reece James.
I’m targeting the Over of 2.5 goals at a digestible price of -135 at DraftKings, and don’t be surprised if either side’s star striker bags another.
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 (-135, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
