Hong Kong-based expert paints grim picture of challenges, yet voices hope in next generation and nature’s resilience
4-MIN READ4-MINHolly ChikPublished: 6:00am, 10 Jul 2026As Super Typhoon Bavi churns towards Taiwan and eastern mainland China, they offer a chilling timely reminder that the world needs to brace for impending disasters as the climate system nears a tipping point.For Benjamin Horton, the newly minted recipient of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Axford Medal – the most prestigious honour in Asian climate and earth science – the world has entered a period of volatility in which historical weather patterns are no longer a reliable guide to future risk.
“The Earth is incredibly sensitive,” he added. “It has a planetary boundary, and we are right at the edge of it. That means that the system is prone to extremes, which we find very hard to predict exactly where and when.”
Typhoons like Bavi that undergo rapid intensification pose severe forecasting challenges. Within just a day or two, a relatively modest threat can escalate into a major hazard as maximum sustained winds surge abruptly, often fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and favourable atmospheric conditions.
