Good morning. Yesterday Keir Starmer published the defence investment plan (Dip), which was probably the last substantial announcement of his premiership. Today he is facing what will probably be his second last PMQs (he is expected to be at the Nato summit next Wednesday, and he’ll have his swansong on 15 July), and the session is likely to be dominated by complaints about the Dip.
1) ‘It doesn’t raise defence spending by anything like enough.’ This is what military chiefs (in private) and retired military leaders (on TV) have been saying for ages. Yesterday the Institute for Fiscal Studies in effect agreed. In a briefing, it said the rise in defence spending under Labour had been “substantial”. But the problem is that last year, under pressure from Donald Trump, Keir Starmer and other Nato leaders committed to raising defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 and, as the IFS explains, despite the increase announced yesterday, there is as yet no credible path to get there.
2) ‘It is not even properly funded.’ As Kiran Stacey and Dan Sabbagh explain in the Guardian’s splash story, the Dip amounts to a £15bn spending increase – but there is as yet no explanation as to where the money will come from to fund almost £5bn of this.
Read moreThat is a problem for Andy Burnham, who was not briefed on the black hole ahead of the publication of the Dip yesterday, and for his chancellor. Last night Liam Fox, the former Tory defence secretary, said that Starmer was leaving a “poisoned chalice” for his successor.
3) ‘And the bits that are funded are in part funded by cuts that are not popular.’ Some of the Dip is being funded by the cancellation of road projects, and this has angered Labour MPs whose constituencies are affected. Hamish Falconer is a Foreign Office minister, and normally ministers don’t criticise government decisions in public. But he is also MP for Lincoln and last night he posted a message on social media saying he was “disappointed” by the threat to the A46 Newark bypass widening scheme. In the Commons Jonathan Davies, MP for Mid Derbyshire, said shelving the A38 Derby Junctions scheme would be “a brake on economic growth”. And last night Claire Ward, the Labour mayor for the East Midlands, complained her region was disproportionately affected. She told the the Cathy Newman Show on Sky:
double quotation markWhat I’m complaining about today is that the East Midlands would appear to be the only region that has been told it is sacrificing its road investments programme in order to be able to contribute to the Dip.
9.30am: MPs hold a debate in Westminster Hall on the case for banning MPs from having second jobs.
Morning: Dan Jarvis, the defence secretary, is on a visit in Cambridgeshire.
Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
2.15pm: Police chiefs give evidence to the joint committee on human rights on the policing of protests.
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